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Research And Publication

Title A Quick Estimate the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version April 1, 2020)
Authors Morris, Sebastian
Type Working Paper
Publication Date 03-Apr-2020
Year 2020
Abstract Using a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths it would soon become possible to give estimates to the final numbers of cases and deaths that are likely on account of COID19, for countries which have gone through about 60+ days since the first cases were recorded. Such estimates assume that the containment and preventive actions continue unabated. We also provide an upper bound to the final cases and deaths that are likely. Right now (with data up to April 1) the projections for Korea, China, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran, UK have been made. We hope to update the same in due course as the disease progresses. In the UK the deaths are bound to increase, and in Italy the cases could rise further.

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