Uncertainty,Complexity and Risk in Projects

Start Date:May 27, 2019 End Date:May 31, 2019
Last Date for Application:May 13, 2019 Last Date for Early Bird:May 6, 2019
Programme Fee: 120000 INR

Plus 18% GST

Early Bird Fee:111600 INR

Plus 18% GST

Emerging economies in Asia and India are going through major transformation. While about 70 trillion dollars' worth of projects are being executed in the world, a majority of these projects will require new knowledge in managing projects that goes beyond critical path, network diagram and conventional Project Risk Management (PRM) as practiced by Project Management Book of Knowledge (PMBOK).


Some of the events in the recent past like the major international sports event in New Delhi, difference in valuation in coal and telecom projects, the shifting of location of project construction site of the world's cheapest car factory from eastern India to western India, etc. focus on the need for specialized training in PRM. Even the Challenger and Columbia disasters are examples that demonstrate the need for proper PRM. A report (February 2014) by the Ministry of Programme Implementation indicates that out of 239 major projects funded by the central government (worth Rs.1000 crore or more) totalling Rs. 739881 crore (about 113 billion USD), 104 are behind schedule and 77 have no fixed date of commissioning. In financial terms, the cost overrun translates to a loss of more than Rs. 156802 crore (about 25 billion USD).

The Essence:

The essence of new paradigm PRM lies in understanding the three dimensions of PRM:
Uncertainty, Complexity, and Risk. This programme is aimed not only at introducing PRM as a process but developing it in a matrix of uncertainty and complexity also. Hence our programme goes much beyond conventional matrix of impact and likelihood method and conventional definition of project risk.

• Acquaint the participants with three types: Variations, foreseen and unforeseen uncertainties
• Discuss issues related to risk identification, risk analysis, and risk response planning in projects in mitigating cost and time overrun
• Develop knowledge about system, task, and organizational level complexities
• Discuss various statistical principles in risk management and introduce new concepts of cumulative impact factor and cumulative likelihood factors, risk cost, risk time, corrective cost, corrective time, expected cost, and expected time
• Discuss advanced concepts like simulation, Dependency Structure Matrix, selectionism and learning
• Discuss the difference between PRM in ordinary projects and technology start-up projects
• Discuss various legal issues including statutory reporting of project risk management
• Discuss Indian and international cases of application of PRM in several industries

• Basics of Critical Path Method and Program Evaluation and Review Techniques
• Probability Concepts and Dependency Structure Matrix
• PRM Process: SHAMPU, PMBOK, and RAMP
• Case Study of PRM in India and Abroad
• Integration of Project Risk with Financial Risk
• Develop the Profile of PRM in Variation, Foreseen and Unforeseen Uncertainty, and Complexity
• Recent Developments, NTCP (Novelty, Technology, Complexity, and Pace)
• Statutory Reporting in PRM

A mix of pedagogical tools will be used—cases and articles from international journals, software developed by IIMA, videotapes, and guest lectures.

Faculty Chair

Goutam Dutta

Programme Faculty

Arnab Laha

Anurag K Agarwal